Singularity Tracker
HomeWhat is the singularity?Reality AugmentationComputingTranscending Biology
What is the singularity?
Black Hole
     The concept of 'the singularity' is somewhat loosely defined, but most people agree that it means a point in our future when the rate of technological and intellectual progress becomes unimaginably fast.  It is based on the observation that many things in our society become increasingly more sophisticated, faster and faster, as we build better tools to make the whole process even faster.
     One of the main predictions people make about the singularity is that it will be driven by artificial intelligence that is self-improving.  People think this, not because artificial intelligence is so easy to create, but rather, because of one very convincing argument:  If artificial intelligence could surpass human intelligence only slightly, it could create other forms of artificial intelligence by itself, and give them the ability to self improve.  This would lead to a very sudden and rapid improvement in all forms of automation.
     The word singularity in this context is borrowed from mathematics and physics, where it usually means a point so extreme, that the currently understood rules fail to explain what will happen at this point.  This word is appropriate because if the future is anything like some people are predicting, the singularity will represent a fundamental change in humanity.
When will the singularity happen?

     It could never happen, as many of the advancements necessary for the singularity are rather speculative and rely on solutions to problems we haven't found yet.  Still, some are optimistic that we will not only solve these problems, but soar past them.  There is probably no one more optimistic than futurist Ray Kurzweil who has set a date of 2045 for the singularity, and written prolifically on the subject.
     Optimistic people see the singularity happening within the next fifty years, pointing to what they believe will be the continuation of trends that we currently see in information technology and the understanding of the human body. They argue that:
  • Even though all natural growth is limited by some critical point, we will experience the singularity, that is, the profound change in humanity before we reach this point.
  • Most all computing devices have the special property that they are universal, which allows them to run programs that can process a very wide class of problems. They argue that this includes, theoretically, any living organism including a human, as well as all non living things.

     Other people, however, see the singularity as being an event in our very distant future and others believe the entire concept is an impossibility.  While their viewpoints are unique, some of the arguments against the singularity are:
  • All natural phenomena that exhibit exponential growth will ultimately be bound by a logistic curve. ie. growth can become explosive for a while but it eventually slows down after reaching some critical point (like it does with animal populations).
  • It is impossible for computers to simulate real intelligence, a behavior that is unique to humans.  This argument is related to the assertion that consciousness is intrinsic to humans and cannot be replicated and/or that humans possess a soul.